* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORA EP182015 10/14/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 21 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 21 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 22 20 17 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 36 38 40 36 32 29 27 29 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 6 3 2 0 0 1 1 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 237 240 240 245 243 233 240 227 230 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.1 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.9 28.1 28.1 28.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 143 142 142 141 141 142 144 145 148 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.9 -51.9 -52.1 -52.2 -52.1 -52.5 -52.4 -53.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 11 11 10 10 10 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 41 38 39 42 41 39 42 44 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 10 10 8 7 6 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 26 9 -3 -19 -31 -23 -18 -19 -17 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 5 9 -3 7 15 10 16 15 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 4 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 642 594 546 497 449 352 314 371 510 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.3 15.5 15.8 16.1 16.3 16.1 15.8 15.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 151.0 151.4 151.8 152.2 152.5 153.7 155.2 156.9 158.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 5 5 5 7 7 9 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 22 25 28 29 30 35 30 28 27 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 712 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 31.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 13. 19. 24. 27. 30. 31. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -9. -14. -19. -22. -23. -24. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -12. -14. -16. -17. -17. -18. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -10. -10. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -9. -10. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -11. -16. -22. -29. -34. -39. -42. -43. -43. -42. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP182015 NORA 10/14/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 36.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 31.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 26.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 25.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182015 NORA 10/14/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##