* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962015 10/14/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 38 44 58 70 82 91 98 100 103 108 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 38 44 58 70 82 91 98 100 103 108 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 28 30 33 42 55 72 93 111 121 124 126 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 4 5 5 4 2 5 6 10 12 22 16 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 1 0 -2 -5 -1 -1 -3 -3 -8 -6 -7 SHEAR DIR 10 19 38 69 81 43 8 37 10 12 9 3 331 SST (C) 29.3 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.9 29.2 29.5 30.0 30.0 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 160 159 158 156 156 158 161 166 165 162 159 161 161 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.5 -51.8 -52.0 -51.9 -51.5 -51.8 -51.9 -52.0 -51.9 -52.2 -52.0 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 10 9 9 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 700-500 MB RH 65 64 64 64 63 65 67 68 71 74 77 80 82 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 10 11 12 13 14 16 20 24 25 27 31 850 MB ENV VOR -8 -3 -3 0 5 19 28 44 66 68 62 45 53 200 MB DIV 56 76 65 45 43 50 53 75 81 108 132 136 116 700-850 TADV 1 1 1 3 3 0 -2 -2 -4 -5 -2 0 0 LAND (KM) 1514 1601 1682 1785 1898 2112 2343 2565 2715 2597 2537 2508 2437 LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.1 10.2 10.2 10.1 10.0 9.6 9.2 8.7 8.4 8.3 8.8 10.1 LONG(DEG W) 115.2 116.9 118.6 120.2 121.8 124.8 127.6 130.1 132.2 133.6 134.3 134.3 134.3 STM SPEED (KT) 15 17 16 16 15 14 13 12 9 6 2 4 6 HEAT CONTENT 64 60 48 41 42 34 31 21 21 21 21 20 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 546 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 23. 30. 34. 36. 38. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 10. 9. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 11. 10. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 14. 20. 22. 25. 30. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 0. 0. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 13. 19. 33. 45. 57. 66. 73. 75. 78. 83. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962015 INVEST 10/14/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 51.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 80.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 58% is 4.4 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 38% is 4.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 25% is 4.2 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 24% is 5.7 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962015 INVEST 10/14/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##