* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORA EP182015 10/15/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 22 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 22 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 22 19 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 36 39 37 32 27 26 25 28 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 5 2 0 -1 1 0 0 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 241 240 246 243 237 242 244 239 235 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 141 142 141 141 141 143 144 141 141 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.9 -52.0 -52.3 -52.1 -52.2 -52.3 -52.8 -53.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 39 39 43 44 44 45 44 48 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 10 9 8 7 6 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 11 -4 -19 -30 -39 -21 -20 -21 -22 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 3 -7 13 20 18 10 20 21 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 3 2 1 1 0 0 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 602 563 525 487 446 359 334 374 403 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.3 15.5 15.6 15.8 15.9 16.0 15.9 15.7 15.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 151.2 151.6 152.0 152.4 152.8 154.1 155.9 156.7 156.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 4 4 5 7 6 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 24 27 29 30 31 32 28 27 25 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 4 CX,CY: -1/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 693 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 13. 19. 24. 27. 29. 31. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -8. -13. -16. -19. -20. -21. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -13. -15. -17. -18. -18. -19. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -10. -10. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -12. -13. -14. -14. -15. -14. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -7. -11. -15. -23. -31. -38. -44. -47. -49. -49. -48. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP182015 NORA 10/15/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 34.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 28.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 11.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182015 NORA 10/15/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##