* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORA EP182015 10/15/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 23 21 18 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 23 21 18 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 24 22 20 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 41 35 31 29 30 31 33 34 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 4 0 -1 1 1 0 -2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 242 249 249 245 241 248 245 240 225 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.9 28.0 27.9 28.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 142 140 140 139 139 142 143 142 145 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.9 -52.1 -52.1 -51.9 -52.2 -52.2 -52.7 -53.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 10 11 10 10 10 10 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 39 41 40 41 42 39 41 44 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 8 7 7 5 5 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -14 -33 -44 -45 -37 -38 -34 -37 -32 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -20 -1 20 17 0 22 12 22 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 2 2 2 1 1 0 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 517 473 430 403 375 314 228 283 391 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.3 16.6 16.8 17.0 17.0 16.9 16.5 16.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 151.7 151.9 152.1 152.3 152.4 153.4 155.1 156.5 157.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 3 2 3 7 7 7 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 28 28 29 31 32 36 34 30 29 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 5 CX,CY: -2/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 711 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 6.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 13. 19. 24. 27. 29. 31. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -9. -15. -20. -24. -26. -26. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. -13. -14. -15. -16. -16. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -2. -2. -5. -6. -8. -10. -10. -10. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -6. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -11. -13. -14. -15. -16. -17. -16. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -7. -10. -19. -27. -36. -44. -49. -52. -53. -52. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP182015 NORA 10/15/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 33.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 29.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 3.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182015 NORA 10/15/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##