* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINETEEN EP192015 10/15/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 40 46 54 68 79 90 98 101 107 107 109 V (KT) LAND 30 34 40 46 54 68 79 90 98 101 107 107 109 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 37 42 48 63 81 98 113 120 122 121 121 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 5 6 7 5 6 7 10 4 6 4 3 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 -4 -4 -3 0 -1 0 -2 0 -7 -3 SHEAR DIR 17 45 67 80 65 20 354 353 325 330 350 202 188 SST (C) 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.3 29.4 29.7 29.8 29.7 29.5 29.3 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 157 156 154 154 155 158 158 161 162 161 159 157 155 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -52.0 -51.9 -51.4 -51.5 -51.8 -51.7 -52.1 -52.0 -51.9 -51.7 -51.5 -51.4 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 65 65 65 67 69 68 68 69 70 70 71 65 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 13 14 15 16 18 22 26 29 33 33 37 850 MB ENV VOR -8 -2 6 12 17 23 31 35 47 51 82 93 89 200 MB DIV 68 38 48 71 88 66 75 84 136 150 152 138 91 700-850 TADV 0 2 2 1 0 -2 -6 -4 -4 -3 -4 0 6 LAND (KM) 1667 1755 1849 1938 2031 2171 2301 2400 2491 2539 2438 2287 2131 LAT (DEG N) 10.3 10.2 10.1 10.0 9.9 10.1 10.1 10.3 10.7 11.4 12.4 13.4 14.6 LONG(DEG W) 118.5 119.8 121.1 122.2 123.4 125.8 127.6 129.1 130.6 131.9 133.2 134.3 135.4 STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 12 11 12 10 8 8 8 7 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 49 41 42 40 36 33 27 23 19 18 20 21 31 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 525 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 8. 14. 21. 27. 30. 32. 34. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 3. 4. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -13. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 5. 8. 11. 17. 23. 26. 33. 34. 38. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 10. 16. 24. 38. 49. 60. 68. 71. 77. 77. 79. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP192015 NINETEEN 10/15/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 41.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 76.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 45% is 3.4 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 32% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 23% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 17% is 3.9 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192015 NINETEEN 10/15/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##