* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINETEEN EP192015 10/15/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 37 43 49 61 71 78 87 91 94 95 94 V (KT) LAND 30 32 37 43 49 61 71 78 87 91 94 95 94 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 33 36 40 49 61 73 85 92 98 102 103 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 8 7 5 5 10 11 3 6 8 3 8 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -3 -4 -4 -2 1 3 0 0 2 0 -6 SHEAR DIR 33 58 78 60 29 10 353 326 352 350 278 221 188 SST (C) 29.0 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.4 29.6 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.5 29.3 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 156 154 154 155 156 159 160 162 161 161 159 157 154 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.9 -51.4 -51.6 -51.8 -51.5 -52.1 -51.3 -52.0 -51.3 -51.9 -51.1 -51.5 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 64 64 67 67 69 69 70 70 71 71 70 65 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 15 16 16 19 21 23 28 31 33 36 37 850 MB ENV VOR -2 8 14 18 17 20 24 34 37 51 62 72 68 200 MB DIV 35 43 68 74 69 91 82 130 144 150 117 101 77 700-850 TADV 1 1 1 -1 -3 -5 -6 -4 -3 -4 -1 5 7 LAND (KM) 1755 1842 1935 2015 2085 2245 2355 2448 2519 2539 2380 2211 2047 LAT (DEG N) 10.2 10.1 10.0 10.0 10.0 9.9 10.0 10.4 11.0 11.7 12.6 13.8 15.3 LONG(DEG W) 119.8 121.0 122.2 123.3 124.4 126.6 128.2 129.8 131.2 132.5 133.7 134.9 136.0 STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 11 11 11 9 8 8 8 7 8 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 36 35 34 31 30 34 26 26 26 23 21 21 30 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 480 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 14. 21. 27. 30. 32. 34. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 7. 8. 8. 10. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 5. 9. 13. 16. 23. 27. 31. 35. 35. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 7. 13. 19. 31. 41. 48. 57. 61. 64. 65. 64. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP192015 NINETEEN 10/15/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 33.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 52.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 32% is 2.4 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 13% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192015 NINETEEN 10/15/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##