* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORA EP182015 10/15/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 23 22 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 24 23 22 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 24 23 22 20 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 30 26 25 27 29 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 253 250 245 244 243 237 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 141 140 141 141 143 143 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.9 -51.8 -51.8 -51.9 -52.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 10 10 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 36 37 37 38 38 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 6 6 6 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -42 -42 -34 -33 -32 -26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 6 10 3 12 24 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 3 1 1 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 391 355 319 280 246 226 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.6 16.8 17.0 17.0 17.0 16.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 152.7 153.0 153.3 153.9 154.4 156.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 4 5 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 30 32 34 37 39 34 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 6 CX,CY: -3/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 764 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 13. 19. 24. 27. 29. 31. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. -2. -6. -10. -15. -19. -20. -21. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -11. -12. -14. -15. -15. -15. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -8. -9. -9. -10. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -5. -10. -15. -21. -25. -29. -31. -32. -31. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP182015 NORA 10/15/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 34.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 29.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182015 NORA 10/15/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##