* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINETEEN EP192015 10/15/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 36 41 47 59 71 80 87 93 97 99 101 V (KT) LAND 30 32 36 41 47 59 71 80 87 93 97 99 101 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 33 36 40 49 61 72 81 91 101 108 112 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 5 3 6 9 9 9 7 6 5 4 3 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -5 -3 -1 0 0 1 -2 -4 -6 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 46 93 74 21 16 348 343 339 347 351 341 184 176 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.3 29.4 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.5 29.2 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 154 155 156 157 158 158 161 162 162 161 159 157 153 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.4 -51.6 -51.8 -51.7 -51.9 -52.1 -51.9 -51.8 -51.8 -51.8 -51.7 -51.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 9 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 65 67 66 68 68 68 68 73 72 72 71 66 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 16 16 18 21 24 28 30 34 35 37 40 850 MB ENV VOR 7 12 15 15 18 26 28 32 44 67 65 73 81 200 MB DIV 42 69 83 82 87 114 120 128 163 119 87 79 102 700-850 TADV 1 1 -1 -3 -5 -7 -4 -6 -6 -2 0 6 10 LAND (KM) 1787 1880 1978 2069 2159 2310 2408 2497 2564 2468 2332 2157 1951 LAT (DEG N) 10.2 10.1 10.0 10.0 10.0 9.9 10.1 10.5 11.1 11.7 12.3 13.6 15.4 LONG(DEG W) 120.3 121.6 122.8 124.2 125.5 127.5 129.0 130.5 131.9 133.2 134.3 135.5 136.9 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 13 13 11 9 8 7 7 7 7 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 36 36 32 30 33 29 25 26 25 23 18 20 26 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 538 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 8. 14. 21. 27. 30. 32. 34. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 5. 4. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -14. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 5. 10. 16. 21. 25. 29. 33. 35. 38. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -2. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 11. 17. 29. 41. 50. 57. 63. 67. 69. 71. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP192015 NINETEEN 10/15/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 33.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 72.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 54.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 31% is 2.4 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 18% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192015 NINETEEN 10/15/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##