* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINETEEN EP192015 10/16/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 36 41 47 56 68 79 89 93 95 98 96 V (KT) LAND 30 32 36 41 47 56 68 79 89 93 95 98 96 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 33 36 40 49 61 76 88 98 105 107 103 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 4 4 4 5 10 11 8 4 4 4 9 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -5 -3 -1 0 -1 -3 -3 0 -3 -4 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 52 67 62 37 51 2 1 339 349 343 239 189 183 SST (C) 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.2 29.3 29.5 29.7 29.8 29.7 29.6 29.3 29.0 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 154 155 155 157 158 159 161 161 161 161 158 154 151 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.7 -51.8 -51.8 -51.6 -52.3 -51.7 -52.3 -51.3 -52.1 -51.3 -51.7 -50.8 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 6 700-500 MB RH 67 66 66 66 67 70 72 70 70 71 67 61 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 13 14 15 16 20 24 29 31 34 37 37 850 MB ENV VOR 6 9 10 12 13 26 33 37 45 52 59 65 82 200 MB DIV 62 69 69 73 101 91 109 111 149 133 129 99 111 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -1 -2 -3 -2 -2 -5 -4 3 8 9 LAND (KM) 1868 1954 2035 2112 2192 2325 2416 2491 2540 2451 2246 2049 1864 LAT (DEG N) 10.2 10.2 10.2 10.2 10.1 10.0 10.3 10.7 11.3 12.1 13.4 14.6 15.9 LONG(DEG W) 121.5 122.7 123.9 125.0 126.1 127.8 129.3 130.6 131.8 133.2 134.7 136.2 137.6 STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 11 11 10 8 7 6 7 9 9 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 37 33 28 29 32 27 26 26 24 22 19 26 28 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 519 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 8. 14. 21. 27. 30. 32. 34. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 7. 3. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 11. 17. 24. 27. 31. 35. 34. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -2. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 11. 17. 26. 38. 49. 59. 63. 65. 68. 66. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP192015 NINETEEN 10/16/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 31.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 74.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 57.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 32% is 2.5 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192015 NINETEEN 10/16/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##