* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINETEEN EP192015 10/16/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 36 40 51 61 73 82 89 91 95 94 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 36 40 51 61 73 82 89 91 95 94 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 28 30 38 47 59 73 88 99 102 101 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 4 4 4 6 11 8 13 4 3 5 9 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -4 -1 0 0 0 -2 -3 4 1 -3 -4 -4 SHEAR DIR 55 47 27 33 8 351 347 352 351 333 218 205 207 SST (C) 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.5 29.2 29.0 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 155 156 157 158 159 161 162 162 162 159 156 154 151 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.9 -51.8 -51.5 -51.8 -51.9 -52.1 -52.3 -51.9 -52.0 -51.8 -52.0 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 6 700-500 MB RH 66 65 65 67 67 70 72 69 72 72 68 63 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 13 13 13 16 18 22 26 29 31 35 35 850 MB ENV VOR 6 8 12 12 18 25 35 35 43 50 58 62 88 200 MB DIV 74 62 59 73 73 67 111 103 129 123 127 63 88 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -2 -1 -3 -3 -2 -4 -6 -4 2 8 4 LAND (KM) 1969 2048 2128 2206 2287 2408 2497 2566 2492 2316 2115 1927 1774 LAT (DEG N) 10.2 10.2 10.2 10.1 10.0 10.1 10.5 11.0 11.4 12.2 13.4 14.6 15.8 LONG(DEG W) 122.9 124.1 125.3 126.3 127.3 129.0 130.5 131.8 133.1 134.5 136.0 137.4 138.5 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 11 10 9 8 7 7 7 9 9 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 33 28 29 32 29 25 26 25 23 18 18 23 29 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 534 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 23. 29. 33. 36. 38. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 3. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -8. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 5. 8. 14. 20. 24. 29. 33. 32. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 11. 15. 26. 36. 48. 57. 64. 66. 71. 69. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP192015 NINETEEN 10/16/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 30.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 68.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 71.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 47% is 3.6 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 29% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 20% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 15% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192015 NINETEEN 10/16/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##