* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922015 10/16/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 23 26 28 29 27 25 26 26 27 26 V (KT) LAND 20 19 22 24 25 26 26 27 27 27 30 30 29 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 24 25 26 27 27 27 27 30 30 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 21 22 21 23 27 25 21 17 15 14 23 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -4 -6 -5 -2 0 0 -3 -1 1 3 2 0 SHEAR DIR 251 238 240 239 230 218 219 220 229 221 198 171 164 SST (C) 29.7 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.7 30.3 30.4 30.2 29.9 30.0 POT. INT. (KT) 163 167 167 165 161 159 159 163 171 171 171 167 169 ADJ. POT. INT. 154 161 159 157 153 149 148 154 169 171 168 161 160 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.7 -52.2 -52.5 -52.2 -52.4 -52.2 -52.2 -52.2 -52.0 -51.6 -51.6 -51.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 5 5 4 6 5 6 6 9 10 10 700-500 MB RH 85 86 86 87 87 87 84 79 73 75 70 69 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 8 9 10 10 9 6 6 7 6 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 83 85 97 100 96 76 68 64 67 80 83 88 69 200 MB DIV 75 98 97 80 89 103 84 83 49 67 85 74 104 700-850 TADV 12 9 7 5 6 4 3 -4 2 -1 0 10 16 LAND (KM) 66 -9 -110 -182 -124 -83 -45 -131 -151 -35 67 152 261 LAT (DEG N) 16.5 16.8 17.1 17.3 17.5 17.8 17.8 17.6 17.3 17.0 16.9 16.8 16.7 LONG(DEG W) 87.5 88.4 89.3 90.1 91.0 92.6 94.1 95.7 97.5 99.5 101.5 103.5 105.2 STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 8 8 8 8 7 8 9 10 10 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 75 85 48 0 20 54 43 46 64 57 55 56 54 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 604 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -1. 4. 11. 19. 25. 30. 35. 39. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 1. -4. -7. -9. -10. -11. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -14. -15. -16. -16. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -9. -10. -12. -12. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. -1. -2. 0. -2. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 9. 7. 5. 6. 6. 7. 6. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922015 INVEST 10/16/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.3 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.3 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 82.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 136.6 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 45.6 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 87.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 32.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 25% is 2.1 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922015 INVEST 10/16/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922015 INVEST 10/16/2015 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED