* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINETEEN EP192015 10/16/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 39 43 48 58 69 81 84 87 90 93 91 V (KT) LAND 30 34 39 43 48 58 69 81 84 87 90 93 91 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 37 42 47 58 70 81 90 100 107 109 107 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 3 6 8 9 12 13 6 7 3 5 5 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 2 3 2 -1 0 2 -3 -3 -4 -2 -2 SHEAR DIR 54 20 2 340 321 322 335 349 342 330 210 229 205 SST (C) 29.3 29.4 29.6 29.8 29.9 30.0 30.0 29.8 29.6 29.4 29.2 29.2 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 159 159 161 163 163 164 164 162 160 159 156 156 153 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.7 -52.0 -52.1 -52.0 -51.9 -52.2 -51.9 -52.0 -52.1 -52.2 -52.2 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 6 700-500 MB RH 64 66 67 69 69 73 72 74 75 70 65 61 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 13 14 15 18 21 25 26 29 31 35 35 850 MB ENV VOR 7 11 15 19 23 20 16 31 46 43 49 71 82 200 MB DIV 53 66 85 67 62 65 115 136 144 88 87 117 119 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -5 -3 -2 -2 -6 -8 -5 1 8 11 7 LAND (KM) 2201 2278 2357 2425 2495 2598 2613 2441 2264 2068 1880 1698 1566 LAT (DEG N) 9.6 9.6 9.6 9.6 9.6 9.7 10.1 10.6 11.2 12.2 13.5 14.5 15.3 LONG(DEG W) 125.6 126.7 127.8 128.7 129.6 131.0 132.5 134.0 135.5 137.0 138.3 139.7 140.7 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 10 9 8 7 8 8 8 9 8 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 35 34 26 24 24 24 21 23 27 17 22 32 30 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 541 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 15. 22. 28. 31. 33. 35. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 12. 18. 19. 23. 27. 32. 31. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 13. 18. 28. 39. 51. 54. 57. 60. 63. 61. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP192015 NINETEEN 10/16/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 28.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 66.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 86.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 65% is 5.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 39% is 4.5 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 26% is 4.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 24% is 5.6 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192015 NINETEEN 10/16/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##