* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922015 10/17/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 25 27 28 29 29 26 25 25 26 25 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 25 26 26 26 27 27 27 30 30 29 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 23 25 26 26 27 27 27 27 30 30 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 23 25 25 28 25 24 21 21 18 21 27 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -5 -4 -2 -1 0 -1 -1 0 3 1 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 243 242 235 225 218 227 226 224 209 209 181 175 160 SST (C) 29.8 29.9 29.8 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.7 30.3 30.4 30.1 29.9 30.0 POT. INT. (KT) 165 167 165 161 159 159 159 163 171 171 171 167 168 ADJ. POT. INT. 156 160 157 153 149 147 148 154 169 171 165 159 158 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -52.1 -52.5 -52.2 -52.0 -52.6 -51.9 -52.4 -51.8 -52.3 -51.3 -51.6 -50.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 6 5 4 6 4 8 6 10 8 10 700-500 MB RH 86 87 86 87 89 84 81 74 74 70 72 68 66 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 8 10 11 9 8 7 6 6 5 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR 85 90 93 99 95 61 68 61 72 77 89 82 95 200 MB DIV 98 89 81 100 109 99 93 82 72 69 96 103 152 700-850 TADV 9 9 11 12 11 3 -1 -1 0 1 -1 13 6 LAND (KM) 14 -81 -172 -125 -88 -41 -11 -127 -139 -36 70 142 230 LAT (DEG N) 16.7 17.0 17.3 17.6 17.8 18.1 18.1 17.7 17.3 17.1 17.0 16.9 16.9 LONG(DEG W) 88.2 89.1 89.9 90.8 91.6 93.0 94.3 95.9 97.8 99.7 101.7 103.5 105.0 STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 9 8 7 6 7 8 9 10 9 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 33 84 0 16 44 56 6 50 62 57 53 55 52 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 637 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -1. 4. 11. 19. 25. 30. 35. 39. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 4. 3. 0. -4. -8. -11. -13. -14. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -13. -14. -15. -15. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -11. -12. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 5. 7. 8. 10. 9. 6. 5. 5. 6. 5. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922015 INVEST 10/17/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.6 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 83.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.9 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 35.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 95.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 54.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922015 INVEST 10/17/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922015 INVEST 10/17/2015 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)