* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINETEEN EP192015 10/17/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 42 46 51 60 73 82 91 92 93 92 92 V (KT) LAND 35 39 42 46 51 60 73 82 91 92 93 92 92 V (KT) LGE mod 35 40 45 50 56 67 79 93 103 109 109 105 101 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 7 6 8 9 12 8 1 1 3 7 9 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 4 2 0 -1 -1 2 -3 -3 0 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 4 351 327 303 319 342 357 320 355 197 179 210 199 SST (C) 29.4 29.6 29.8 29.9 29.9 30.0 29.9 29.7 29.4 29.3 29.1 29.0 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 159 161 163 163 163 164 163 161 158 157 155 153 149 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.9 -52.1 -52.1 -51.7 -52.2 -51.6 -52.3 -51.2 -51.9 -51.6 -51.7 -51.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 700-500 MB RH 64 63 66 67 69 72 72 73 71 65 55 54 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 13 15 16 18 22 25 30 32 33 34 36 850 MB ENV VOR 15 15 17 19 18 21 24 37 45 45 61 78 89 200 MB DIV 61 59 49 62 76 76 118 112 147 63 111 105 109 700-850 TADV -4 -4 -2 -2 -2 -5 -5 -4 0 3 8 11 6 LAND (KM) 2291 2360 2432 2498 2566 2648 2470 2293 2102 1912 1722 1582 1487 LAT (DEG N) 9.7 9.7 9.7 9.7 9.7 10.0 10.6 11.2 11.9 13.0 14.4 15.4 16.1 LONG(DEG W) 127.0 128.0 128.9 129.8 130.6 132.2 133.7 135.2 136.8 138.2 139.5 140.5 141.2 STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 8 6 4 HEAT CONTENT 31 25 23 25 25 22 22 29 17 20 32 31 28 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 560 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 14. 21. 26. 28. 30. 31. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -7. -8. -9. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 12. 16. 24. 26. 29. 30. 31. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 11. 16. 25. 38. 47. 56. 57. 58. 57. 57. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP192015 NINETEEN 10/17/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 25.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 82.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 51% is 3.9 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 32% is 3.7 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 24% is 4.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 17% is 3.9 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192015 NINETEEN 10/17/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##