* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLAF EP192015 10/17/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 50 55 60 64 74 84 92 100 99 101 99 97 V (KT) LAND 45 50 55 60 64 74 84 92 100 99 101 99 97 V (KT) LGE mod 45 52 59 65 72 84 98 109 117 119 117 111 105 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 8 9 9 8 13 5 3 1 6 9 5 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 -2 -5 -1 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 5 344 315 330 340 353 345 337 173 170 189 189 176 SST (C) 29.6 29.9 30.0 30.0 30.0 29.9 29.8 29.6 29.4 29.3 29.3 28.9 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 161 164 164 164 164 163 162 160 158 157 157 152 148 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -52.1 -52.0 -51.7 -51.9 -52.2 -52.2 -52.4 -51.9 -51.9 -51.6 -51.7 -51.6 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 700-500 MB RH 61 62 64 67 69 70 72 72 71 63 58 58 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 14 15 16 18 22 25 30 31 34 35 35 850 MB ENV VOR 20 18 16 17 22 23 28 41 50 59 78 95 104 200 MB DIV 57 46 52 72 71 90 123 133 114 108 82 82 88 700-850 TADV -4 -3 -2 -2 -3 -6 -6 -6 -1 4 7 6 5 LAND (KM) 2381 2456 2534 2589 2647 2559 2392 2205 1999 1804 1626 1504 1436 LAT (DEG N) 9.5 9.5 9.4 9.5 9.6 10.0 10.6 11.4 12.2 13.2 14.3 15.6 16.8 LONG(DEG W) 128.0 129.0 129.9 130.7 131.5 133.1 134.5 136.0 137.7 139.2 140.5 141.2 141.5 STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 8 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 26 24 26 25 24 21 25 21 18 22 26 28 29 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 549 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 3. 4. 9. 13. 18. 21. 23. 23. 24. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 17. 23. 25. 31. 31. 31. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 15. 19. 29. 39. 47. 55. 54. 56. 54. 52. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP192015 OLAF 10/17/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 25.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 89.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 60% is 4.6 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 38% is 4.4 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 28% is 4.7 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 26% is 6.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192015 OLAF 10/17/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##