* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922015 10/17/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 29 29 28 26 23 20 20 23 23 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 26 30 30 26 26 27 27 30 31 28 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 26 29 28 26 25 26 27 29 30 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 25 28 32 30 31 24 24 28 26 30 27 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -1 0 0 -1 -2 0 1 0 1 -4 0 1 SHEAR DIR 246 237 228 233 239 236 226 214 208 186 176 176 199 SST (C) 29.9 29.7 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.8 30.3 30.2 30.0 30.0 29.9 POT. INT. (KT) 166 163 159 159 157 157 158 166 171 171 168 167 165 ADJ. POT. INT. 155 154 149 147 144 145 148 158 170 165 157 152 149 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.2 -52.1 -52.3 -52.6 -52.0 -52.3 -51.6 -51.7 -50.7 -51.3 -50.3 -51.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 5 4 6 4 7 5 10 8 11 9 700-500 MB RH 86 87 87 85 83 80 72 72 71 71 69 65 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 9 10 9 8 7 6 6 4 5 6 7 850 MB ENV VOR 98 95 80 68 55 63 67 76 77 101 104 122 132 200 MB DIV 84 95 96 94 89 88 89 95 91 111 126 171 99 700-850 TADV 2 7 7 2 -2 -1 1 7 3 -2 8 0 3 LAND (KM) -74 -158 -77 -1 33 50 0 -137 -132 -42 11 7 -34 LAT (DEG N) 17.6 18.0 18.4 18.7 18.9 18.9 18.5 18.0 17.7 17.7 17.9 18.4 19.2 LONG(DEG W) 88.9 89.7 90.5 91.2 91.9 93.2 94.8 96.8 98.9 100.9 102.5 103.6 104.0 STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 8 7 6 7 9 10 10 9 7 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 82 42 38 43 7 24 5 38 59 55 54 53 51 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 592 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 23. 28. 32. 35. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -3. -8. -12. -17. -20. -21. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -5. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -2. -5. -5. -2. -2. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922015 INVEST 10/17/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.3 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.9 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.0 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 42.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 91.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 56.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.6 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922015 INVEST 10/17/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922015 INVEST 10/17/2015 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)