* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLAF EP192015 10/17/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 55 60 65 71 79 91 93 93 94 92 89 86 V (KT) LAND 50 55 60 65 71 79 91 93 93 94 92 89 86 V (KT) LGE mod 50 57 64 72 79 92 102 107 108 104 97 94 93 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 9 11 8 11 11 7 4 5 7 7 9 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 0 2 0 1 -2 -3 -5 0 -2 -1 5 SHEAR DIR 348 330 332 351 355 354 356 278 226 201 214 181 201 SST (C) 29.9 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 29.9 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.2 28.9 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 164 165 164 164 164 163 160 159 158 157 155 152 147 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.9 -51.5 -51.6 -51.9 -51.3 -51.9 -51.4 -51.8 -51.1 -51.8 -51.1 -51.6 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 62 64 68 70 71 71 73 74 70 66 63 59 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 19 20 22 23 25 30 29 31 35 35 35 35 850 MB ENV VOR 15 15 10 13 18 21 35 43 45 63 79 96 104 200 MB DIV 41 54 83 94 102 152 131 113 66 98 82 99 58 700-850 TADV -4 -4 -4 -5 -5 -7 -6 -1 5 9 6 5 6 LAND (KM) 2464 2530 2597 2651 2638 2466 2264 2083 1902 1727 1559 1460 1418 LAT (DEG N) 9.4 9.5 9.5 9.7 9.8 10.3 11.0 11.7 12.6 13.6 14.7 15.7 16.7 LONG(DEG W) 129.0 129.9 130.8 131.6 132.4 133.9 135.6 137.1 138.5 139.8 141.0 141.6 141.7 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 21 23 24 23 23 23 27 17 20 24 24 24 24 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 573 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 5. 9. 12. 16. 19. 19. 19. 19. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -2. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 6. 10. 17. 17. 20. 25. 26. 26. 25. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 15. 21. 29. 41. 43. 43. 44. 42. 39. 36. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP192015 OLAF 10/17/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 22.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 74.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 81.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 45% is 3.5 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 31% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 24% is 4.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 17% is 3.9 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192015 OLAF 10/17/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##