* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922015 10/17/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 27 27 28 26 25 24 23 27 32 31 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 29 30 27 27 27 29 28 32 37 36 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 26 29 26 27 27 29 29 31 34 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 25 27 30 28 29 23 21 23 21 22 14 14 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 0 -1 0 -2 -1 0 -3 -1 -1 -1 7 SHEAR DIR 237 230 234 240 230 232 221 198 174 151 155 192 205 SST (C) 29.8 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.5 29.9 30.6 30.4 30.3 30.2 30.2 30.2 POT. INT. (KT) 164 161 159 159 157 160 168 171 170 169 167 169 169 ADJ. POT. INT. 153 151 147 146 145 152 163 171 169 161 155 159 160 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.1 -52.3 -52.6 -52.2 -52.2 -51.8 -51.6 -51.0 -51.2 -50.7 -51.0 -50.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 4 5 5 6 5 8 8 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 87 88 85 85 83 79 75 77 78 78 78 78 74 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 10 9 8 8 7 6 5 4 5 7 8 850 MB ENV VOR 98 84 71 56 65 63 56 69 77 87 97 88 99 200 MB DIV 99 98 96 93 95 91 102 86 138 117 149 157 88 700-850 TADV 8 8 2 -2 4 -4 7 2 0 2 0 4 8 LAND (KM) -137 -111 -23 -5 0 -31 -140 -40 99 177 185 139 15 LAT (DEG N) 17.8 18.2 18.5 18.6 18.6 18.0 17.2 16.4 15.8 15.5 15.6 16.1 17.2 LONG(DEG W) 89.5 90.3 91.0 91.6 92.3 93.8 95.8 98.0 99.8 100.9 101.3 101.4 101.1 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 6 6 7 9 11 10 7 4 2 4 5 HEAT CONTENT 38 0 44 47 55 43 53 63 49 55 56 54 53 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 603 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 23. 28. 32. 36. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -2. -6. -10. -13. -14. -13. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -11. -11. -12. -14. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -5. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 1. 0. -1. -2. 2. 7. 6. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922015 INVEST 10/17/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.7 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.6 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.4 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 36.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 96.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 42.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.6 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922015 INVEST 10/17/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922015 INVEST 10/17/2015 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED