* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLAF EP192015 10/17/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 52 54 58 64 75 83 88 90 84 83 84 82 V (KT) LAND 50 52 54 58 64 75 83 88 90 84 83 84 82 V (KT) LGE mod 50 53 57 61 66 76 85 92 96 94 91 90 87 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 12 10 12 15 8 9 3 6 7 6 12 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 2 0 0 0 -3 -5 -4 -1 -4 0 6 SHEAR DIR 331 337 352 359 349 10 345 252 210 211 216 180 221 SST (C) 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 29.9 29.7 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.1 28.6 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 165 164 164 164 163 162 160 158 158 158 154 148 145 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.5 -51.7 -51.9 -52.0 -51.7 -51.9 -51.7 -51.7 -51.8 -51.6 -51.4 -51.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 64 68 70 71 71 72 74 71 68 64 58 52 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 20 22 23 26 29 31 33 35 32 32 34 34 850 MB ENV VOR 14 9 11 17 14 27 42 52 56 74 93 111 119 200 MB DIV 55 81 95 100 127 135 121 54 83 84 85 69 43 700-850 TADV -4 -4 -5 -5 -8 -7 -6 1 8 7 6 6 11 LAND (KM) 2557 2617 2678 2638 2550 2363 2147 1951 1785 1604 1463 1361 1332 LAT (DEG N) 9.2 9.3 9.4 9.6 9.8 10.4 11.2 12.0 12.8 13.9 15.1 16.2 17.2 LONG(DEG W) 130.0 130.9 131.7 132.5 133.3 134.9 136.7 138.3 139.6 140.9 141.8 142.4 142.4 STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 8 8 8 9 9 8 8 8 7 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 24 24 24 24 23 26 18 19 21 22 23 22 24 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 562 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 5. 9. 12. 16. 18. 19. 19. 19. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -3. -6. -7. -9. -9. -9. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -11. -13. -13. -13. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 7. 13. 17. 20. 23. 19. 20. 22. 21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 14. 25. 33. 38. 40. 34. 33. 34. 32. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP192015 OLAF 10/17/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 23.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 91.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 76.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 29% is 2.2 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192015 OLAF 10/17/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##