* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972015 10/17/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 28 31 39 49 55 61 64 58 50 45 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 28 31 39 49 55 61 64 58 37 30 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 23 24 27 32 39 45 52 55 36 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 14 14 12 11 7 9 8 5 11 16 15 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -1 -1 -3 -3 -2 -1 -1 -2 0 7 3 7 SHEAR DIR 141 138 136 142 139 135 163 172 140 143 171 186 216 SST (C) 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.5 30.5 30.6 30.7 30.6 30.3 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 167 166 166 166 165 165 167 167 169 170 170 168 162 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.9 -52.4 -52.6 -52.1 -52.1 -51.6 -51.6 -51.1 -51.3 -50.9 -51.1 -51.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 6 6 6 5 7 6 8 7 8 700-500 MB RH 85 86 85 84 83 81 80 84 85 86 85 85 82 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 11 12 12 12 14 15 17 19 14 9 6 850 MB ENV VOR 61 67 74 68 67 47 41 55 69 95 94 94 79 200 MB DIV 118 132 124 115 103 115 115 108 130 126 167 177 137 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 -1 -2 -1 -8 2 LAND (KM) 232 234 236 235 233 246 248 233 220 136 8 -140 -204 LAT (DEG N) 12.8 13.1 13.3 13.6 13.8 13.8 13.6 13.6 13.8 14.7 16.0 17.7 19.6 LONG(DEG W) 93.5 93.8 94.1 94.4 94.6 94.9 95.4 96.1 96.9 97.7 98.2 98.7 98.6 STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 4 3 2 2 3 3 5 6 8 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 49 45 41 38 36 36 37 38 42 44 21 49 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 510 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. 0. 6. 15. 25. 33. 38. 41. 44. 47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -12. -14. -16. -17. -18. -18. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 9. 11. 13. 7. 0. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 0. -2. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. -3. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 11. 20. 29. 35. 41. 44. 38. 30. 25. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972015 INVEST 10/17/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 146.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 41.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 118.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 82.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972015 INVEST 10/17/15 18 UTC ## ##