* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922015 10/18/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 26 26 25 27 24 22 22 24 27 28 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 26 26 27 27 27 27 30 31 34 29 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 26 26 27 27 27 27 29 30 31 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 26 26 25 24 26 23 18 26 30 28 32 23 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 -2 -2 0 1 0 -2 -4 -7 -1 3 SHEAR DIR 226 232 234 236 234 231 221 209 182 172 164 171 198 SST (C) 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.5 30.0 30.4 30.3 30.1 30.0 30.0 29.9 POT. INT. (KT) 161 159 159 157 157 160 170 171 170 170 168 167 167 ADJ. POT. INT. 149 148 147 144 145 150 163 170 166 159 155 154 154 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -52.1 -52.4 -52.0 -51.8 -52.2 -51.5 -51.6 -50.5 -50.9 -50.1 -50.7 -50.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 5 6 4 8 5 10 9 11 9 11 700-500 MB RH 88 87 85 82 81 73 71 70 70 64 65 58 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 9 8 8 8 9 7 7 7 7 9 12 850 MB ENV VOR 84 75 66 73 73 64 77 75 86 87 113 110 136 200 MB DIV 118 100 105 100 83 77 85 78 90 116 127 69 52 700-850 TADV 7 6 1 0 0 -1 0 7 4 3 1 1 1 LAND (KM) -114 -55 -33 -31 -14 -39 -172 -99 -10 59 67 53 -91 LAT (DEG N) 17.9 18.1 18.3 18.3 18.3 17.9 17.5 17.2 17.1 17.2 17.4 17.9 19.4 LONG(DEG W) 90.4 91.1 91.9 92.5 93.2 94.7 96.6 98.5 100.3 101.8 102.9 103.6 103.3 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 6 7 8 10 9 8 6 5 5 7 HEAT CONTENT 27 36 51 55 58 40 57 60 55 54 54 54 55 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 643 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 23. 28. 32. 35. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -1. -5. -9. -14. -17. -18. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -11. -11. -12. -13. -13. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -3. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 4. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 2. -1. -3. -3. -1. 2. 3. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922015 INVEST 10/18/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.4 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.2 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.9 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 45.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 101.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 23.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.8 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922015 INVEST 10/18/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922015 INVEST 10/18/2015 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)