* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLAF EP192015 10/18/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 58 62 67 73 82 92 91 91 90 88 87 81 V (KT) LAND 55 58 62 67 73 82 92 91 91 90 88 87 81 V (KT) LGE mod 55 59 64 70 75 86 95 102 106 103 98 90 80 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 10 12 10 9 7 3 3 7 12 10 14 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 0 1 0 -3 -6 -6 -4 -3 1 3 3 SHEAR DIR 330 336 340 345 1 14 341 221 181 197 201 200 215 SST (C) 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 29.8 29.7 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.3 28.8 28.4 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 164 165 165 165 163 161 160 158 158 157 151 146 143 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -52.0 -52.2 -52.1 -51.3 -51.8 -51.3 -51.7 -50.9 -51.5 -50.9 -51.4 -51.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 7 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 65 67 68 70 71 74 72 70 68 65 62 54 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 22 25 26 28 28 32 32 33 34 34 36 34 850 MB ENV VOR 11 10 9 16 19 33 48 38 60 69 102 103 111 200 MB DIV 86 100 117 131 166 143 101 69 102 92 99 50 41 700-850 TADV -3 -5 -5 -5 -6 -5 -2 3 4 6 8 6 7 LAND (KM) 2612 2665 2663 2567 2471 2275 2069 1878 1697 1548 1416 1343 1319 LAT (DEG N) 9.1 9.3 9.5 9.8 10.0 10.6 11.4 12.3 13.4 14.5 15.8 16.8 17.8 LONG(DEG W) 130.6 131.5 132.3 133.2 134.0 135.7 137.4 138.9 140.2 141.2 142.0 142.4 142.4 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 7 6 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 25 24 24 23 23 27 17 21 22 23 23 23 25 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 572 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 14. 16. 16. 15. 15. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 7. 8. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. -14. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 3. 5. 9. 11. 17. 17. 18. 21. 22. 24. 20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 1. 0. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 18. 27. 37. 36. 36. 35. 33. 32. 26. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP192015 OLAF 10/18/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 23.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 120.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 87.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 36% is 2.7 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 28% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 20% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 15% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192015 OLAF 10/18/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##