* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972015 10/18/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 27 30 38 47 56 60 64 65 57 50 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 27 30 38 47 56 60 64 65 49 34 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 21 22 24 27 32 38 44 52 58 52 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 16 12 9 6 6 6 5 9 11 14 11 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 -2 -3 -1 -2 0 0 -2 -1 -3 1 7 SHEAR DIR 132 132 133 139 139 140 170 173 114 127 161 155 183 SST (C) 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.5 30.5 30.5 30.4 30.4 30.5 30.4 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 167 167 166 165 165 167 168 168 167 167 170 170 164 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.3 -52.5 -51.9 -51.6 -52.0 -51.3 -51.5 -50.6 -51.2 -50.6 -51.3 -50.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 7 8 5 7 6 8 7 9 8 10 700-500 MB RH 83 84 82 79 79 75 78 81 80 78 80 76 72 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 12 12 12 13 15 17 16 18 18 12 6 850 MB ENV VOR 67 74 70 63 52 28 47 53 74 83 88 88 106 200 MB DIV 139 132 92 79 82 95 94 96 106 126 148 72 74 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 2 0 -1 -1 -5 9 LAND (KM) 276 274 272 260 239 234 255 290 295 259 152 -26 -261 LAT (DEG N) 12.9 13.2 13.5 13.7 13.8 13.7 13.4 13.2 13.3 13.8 15.1 17.0 19.4 LONG(DEG W) 94.2 94.5 94.8 95.0 95.1 95.5 96.2 97.1 98.0 98.8 99.4 99.7 99.1 STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 3 2 2 3 4 5 4 6 8 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 45 40 37 36 36 36 39 46 51 52 51 48 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 473 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. 0. 6. 15. 25. 33. 38. 41. 44. 47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -11. -14. -16. -17. -18. -18. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 9. 8. 10. 10. 2. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -2. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 18. 27. 36. 40. 44. 45. 37. 30. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972015 INVEST 10/18/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 146.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 38.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 104.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 82.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972015 INVEST 10/18/15 00 UTC ## ##