* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLAF EP192015 10/18/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 70 74 79 86 93 96 97 93 90 91 85 77 V (KT) LAND 65 70 74 79 86 93 96 97 93 90 91 85 77 V (KT) LGE mod 65 72 78 85 91 102 109 112 111 106 102 92 78 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 8 10 5 6 6 2 5 6 10 13 17 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 1 1 -1 -3 -6 -7 -3 -2 2 3 5 SHEAR DIR 319 326 353 3 7 333 280 228 175 186 203 212 216 SST (C) 30.0 30.0 30.0 29.8 29.7 29.6 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.1 28.7 28.2 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 163 162 161 159 158 157 154 150 145 140 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.9 -51.7 -51.1 -51.7 -51.8 -51.6 -51.6 -51.6 -51.4 -51.3 -51.2 -51.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 7 7 6 6 7 700-500 MB RH 67 69 70 72 72 75 72 67 66 63 61 55 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 23 25 26 28 30 31 33 32 34 37 36 33 850 MB ENV VOR 12 13 14 21 22 44 48 52 79 98 112 119 120 200 MB DIV 111 134 157 153 98 83 67 66 56 70 54 50 49 700-850 TADV -5 -6 -6 -5 -7 -5 -1 2 5 6 6 9 7 LAND (KM) 2661 2668 2575 2471 2368 2187 1966 1750 1585 1463 1405 1338 1303 LAT (DEG N) 9.3 9.5 9.7 10.0 10.3 10.8 11.9 13.1 14.1 15.1 16.1 17.4 18.8 LONG(DEG W) 131.4 132.3 133.1 134.0 134.9 136.5 138.2 139.8 141.0 141.8 142.0 142.3 142.4 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 9 7 6 6 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 24 24 23 23 26 22 19 22 22 23 23 24 25 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 644 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. 7. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 9. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -13. -14. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 6. 9. 11. 15. 14. 15. 21. 19. 15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 14. 21. 28. 31. 32. 28. 25. 26. 20. 12. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP192015 OLAF 10/18/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 24.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 130.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 83.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 51% is 3.9 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 41% is 4.7 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 27% is 4.6 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 27% is 6.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192015 OLAF 10/18/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##