* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972015 10/18/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 26 29 35 42 46 54 59 57 53 53 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 26 29 35 42 46 54 59 57 53 45 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 24 27 30 34 39 46 52 55 50 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 11 8 5 5 4 6 2 6 7 9 7 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -1 0 0 0 0 -2 -3 -3 -2 1 -2 SHEAR DIR 119 109 96 121 130 157 191 212 124 187 193 177 192 SST (C) 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.5 30.4 30.4 30.2 30.1 POT. INT. (KT) 165 167 166 165 165 166 167 168 169 168 169 167 166 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.5 -52.0 -51.6 -52.0 -51.7 -51.7 -51.6 -51.6 -51.3 -51.6 -51.1 -51.5 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 7 7 6 7 5 6 6 6 6 9 8 700-500 MB RH 81 79 77 78 77 76 80 83 85 87 84 78 72 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 11 10 11 11 11 11 13 15 13 10 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 68 65 58 51 46 41 49 50 65 70 74 75 103 200 MB DIV 132 82 72 86 95 84 89 83 111 148 134 138 102 700-850 TADV 0 -1 0 0 0 1 1 2 -1 0 -3 -3 0 LAND (KM) 256 230 206 197 189 235 301 300 310 277 222 123 -33 LAT (DEG N) 12.6 13.0 13.4 13.6 13.7 13.5 13.2 13.0 13.1 13.7 14.8 16.3 18.1 LONG(DEG W) 93.6 93.7 93.8 93.8 93.9 94.3 95.1 96.2 97.6 99.0 100.3 101.5 101.6 STM SPEED (KT) 2 4 3 2 1 3 5 6 7 8 9 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 50 46 41 39 38 39 38 39 50 53 55 41 48 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 649 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. 0. 6. 15. 25. 33. 38. 41. 44. 47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. -1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -11. -14. -16. -17. -17. -17. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 5. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 9. 15. 22. 26. 34. 39. 37. 33. 33. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972015 INVEST 10/18/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 145.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 42.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 93.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972015 INVEST 10/18/15 06 UTC ## ##