* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922015 10/18/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 26 25 25 23 21 20 16 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 23 24 26 26 27 27 29 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 24 23 26 26 27 27 29 27 25 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 30 28 30 27 24 24 26 26 34 40 39 44 45 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -2 -1 0 0 -1 0 -1 0 0 -3 -1 SHEAR DIR 238 237 237 239 239 226 235 221 203 198 187 170 197 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.5 30.0 30.3 30.2 30.0 30.0 29.8 29.7 29.9 POT. INT. (KT) 158 157 157 159 160 169 171 171 169 168 164 162 166 ADJ. POT. INT. 147 145 146 149 150 160 167 164 158 154 149 146 150 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.0 -51.8 -52.2 -52.4 -51.8 -52.2 -51.4 -51.8 -50.6 -50.8 -50.0 -50.6 TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 6 5 4 7 6 11 9 11 8 10 8 700-500 MB RH 86 83 79 75 73 71 68 69 66 64 57 47 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 8 7 6 6 6 4 5 3 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 58 67 69 65 58 70 56 65 72 90 102 125 129 200 MB DIV 77 68 67 66 67 55 51 70 108 129 101 105 85 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -3 -3 6 5 0 0 0 4 -3 -5 LAND (KM) 0 17 35 0 -61 -184 -129 -59 -22 7 19 22 6 LAT (DEG N) 18.6 18.6 18.6 18.4 18.2 17.9 17.8 17.9 18.2 18.6 19.1 19.9 21.1 LONG(DEG W) 92.5 93.2 93.9 94.7 95.5 97.3 99.2 100.9 102.5 103.8 104.9 105.6 105.3 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 8 8 9 9 8 7 6 5 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 55 10 17 5 39 51 60 56 54 51 45 44 50 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 675 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 23. 28. 32. 35. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -2. -7. -13. -19. -24. -28. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -13. -13. -14. -14. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -9. -9. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -2. -4. -5. -9. -11. -11. -14. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922015 INVEST 10/18/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.9 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.7 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.3 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 25.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 69.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 54.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922015 INVEST 10/18/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922015 INVEST 10/18/2015 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)