* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLAF EP192015 10/18/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 69 73 78 84 92 92 91 92 90 91 84 84 V (KT) LAND 65 69 73 78 84 92 92 91 92 90 91 84 84 V (KT) LGE mod 65 70 76 81 87 96 104 110 111 107 102 96 92 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 12 11 9 7 5 4 2 6 6 7 7 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 2 0 -1 -5 -4 0 -1 -1 0 7 5 SHEAR DIR 331 334 328 334 351 349 270 222 183 156 151 186 208 SST (C) 30.0 29.9 29.8 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.2 28.9 28.7 28.3 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 165 164 163 162 161 160 160 158 156 151 149 146 140 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.9 -51.4 -51.8 -51.9 -51.2 -51.8 -51.2 -51.7 -51.1 -51.5 -50.9 -51.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 8 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 67 69 72 73 76 75 70 66 62 57 54 49 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 23 23 24 27 29 28 28 31 32 34 31 33 850 MB ENV VOR 12 14 15 29 38 58 53 77 87 108 116 115 118 200 MB DIV 113 138 137 91 101 91 66 64 70 72 58 53 24 700-850 TADV -4 -6 -5 -7 -5 -3 0 5 5 4 4 4 4 LAND (KM) 2639 2541 2444 2337 2230 2035 1824 1627 1440 1308 1236 1185 1176 LAT (DEG N) 9.4 9.5 9.6 9.9 10.2 10.8 11.7 12.7 13.7 14.6 15.3 16.6 18.2 LONG(DEG W) 132.6 133.6 134.5 135.5 136.4 138.1 139.8 141.3 142.7 143.6 144.0 144.0 143.7 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 10 10 9 9 9 8 8 5 5 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 23 22 22 24 24 19 25 26 23 25 30 32 24 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 678 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 9. 7. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 3. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -4. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 6. 10. 9. 10. 14. 16. 18. 14. 17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 19. 27. 27. 26. 27. 25. 26. 19. 19. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP192015 OLAF 10/18/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 23.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 116.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 96.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 49% is 3.8 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 33% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 25% is 4.1 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 21% is 5.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192015 OLAF 10/18/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##