* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLAF EP192015 10/18/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 73 76 82 86 94 94 98 98 95 94 89 86 V (KT) LAND 70 73 76 82 86 94 94 98 98 95 94 89 86 V (KT) LGE mod 70 73 77 81 85 94 104 112 115 112 108 102 91 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 10 8 4 4 2 2 8 6 10 10 14 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 4 0 0 -3 -6 -6 -4 -3 -1 0 4 5 SHEAR DIR 339 335 336 342 346 318 212 171 158 159 199 206 239 SST (C) 29.9 29.8 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.3 29.0 28.7 28.4 28.0 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 164 163 162 161 159 159 159 157 153 150 146 143 137 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.2 -51.8 -51.8 -51.8 -51.8 -51.8 -51.7 -51.6 -51.5 -51.1 -50.9 -51.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 7 8 7 8 8 700-500 MB RH 69 73 73 75 77 73 68 66 61 56 51 47 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 24 24 26 27 28 27 31 33 34 36 35 35 850 MB ENV VOR 18 20 33 42 63 66 70 93 101 126 125 125 112 200 MB DIV 127 136 106 102 107 71 76 68 77 59 54 69 27 700-850 TADV -5 -5 -6 -4 -4 -1 1 2 4 4 5 4 7 LAND (KM) 2502 2405 2308 2205 2103 1918 1730 1539 1367 1240 1173 1123 1099 LAT (DEG N) 9.6 9.8 10.0 10.3 10.6 11.2 12.2 13.1 14.0 15.0 16.1 17.3 18.4 LONG(DEG W) 133.9 134.8 135.7 136.6 137.5 139.1 140.5 142.0 143.3 144.1 144.3 144.4 144.4 STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 9 9 9 8 9 8 7 6 6 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 22 22 25 23 19 22 26 24 23 27 33 24 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 685 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 3. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. 0. 1. 3. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -13. -14. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 7. 7. 12. 15. 17. 19. 18. 17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 12. 16. 24. 24. 28. 28. 25. 24. 19. 16. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP192015 OLAF 10/18/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 22.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 115.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 89.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 43% is 3.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 31% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 22% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 18% is 4.1 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192015 OLAF 10/18/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##