* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972015 10/18/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 35 39 43 47 56 63 74 83 76 68 65 61 V (KT) LAND 30 35 39 43 47 56 63 74 83 76 68 57 38 V (KT) LGE mod 30 35 40 45 49 58 67 81 95 97 94 96 48 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 12 9 5 4 3 3 7 5 9 12 22 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 1 3 1 0 -4 -4 -2 -3 -3 0 4 SHEAR DIR 73 62 83 107 128 148 51 64 108 187 168 201 196 SST (C) 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.2 30.2 29.9 POT. INT. (KT) 166 166 166 165 166 166 167 167 167 167 166 167 163 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.6 -51.9 -51.9 -51.4 -51.7 -51.4 -51.6 -51.0 -51.5 -51.1 -51.4 -51.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 6 7 6 7 7 8 8 9 8 8 700-500 MB RH 71 71 71 71 72 78 83 82 81 79 76 67 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 11 11 11 12 12 13 17 13 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 43 40 30 21 24 39 48 60 72 71 85 97 66 200 MB DIV 102 111 119 109 108 99 81 113 132 160 150 97 71 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 1 2 2 0 -3 -2 -1 -1 3 0 LAND (KM) 422 385 348 340 333 326 341 341 315 267 162 -4 -200 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.3 12.6 12.7 12.7 12.8 12.8 13.0 13.7 14.7 16.0 17.7 19.2 LONG(DEG W) 95.3 95.5 95.7 95.9 96.1 96.7 97.5 98.7 99.9 101.1 101.7 101.5 100.5 STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 3 2 2 3 5 6 7 7 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 43 40 39 39 40 43 49 55 57 57 45 46 52 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 508 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 8. 15. 23. 29. 33. 35. 37. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 8. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 9. 10. 8. 7. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -12. -15. -17. -18. -18. -18. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 5. 10. 4. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -2. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 13. 17. 26. 33. 44. 53. 46. 38. 35. 31. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972015 INVEST 10/18/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 40.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 109.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972015 INVEST 10/18/15 18 UTC ## ##