* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLAF EP192015 10/19/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 90 95 100 104 107 107 105 103 100 96 90 83 V (KT) LAND 85 90 95 100 104 107 107 105 103 100 96 90 83 V (KT) LGE mod 85 92 98 104 108 114 119 120 117 111 105 93 80 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 10 7 7 5 4 1 5 8 7 4 14 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 3 0 -1 -4 -5 -2 -4 -2 -2 3 0 6 SHEAR DIR 345 337 353 347 328 322 242 174 158 179 232 207 213 SST (C) 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.2 28.8 28.6 28.2 27.8 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 162 161 160 160 159 159 158 156 151 149 144 140 136 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.8 -52.0 -52.0 -51.5 -51.9 -51.3 -51.7 -51.1 -51.3 -50.5 -51.4 -50.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 71 73 75 76 77 73 72 66 59 50 47 47 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 23 24 26 26 27 29 30 32 34 34 34 31 850 MB ENV VOR 21 33 40 58 64 65 74 93 110 121 119 108 96 200 MB DIV 127 108 101 106 110 83 95 78 86 52 95 59 53 700-850 TADV -4 -3 -3 -4 -2 0 1 3 5 6 7 5 3 LAND (KM) 2396 2298 2199 2110 2021 1825 1639 1451 1277 1143 1061 1028 1030 LAT (DEG N) 9.6 9.8 9.9 10.2 10.4 11.2 12.0 13.0 14.1 15.2 16.4 17.4 18.2 LONG(DEG W) 135.0 136.0 136.9 137.7 138.5 140.1 141.6 143.0 144.2 145.0 145.3 145.3 145.1 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 8 8 8 9 8 7 6 6 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 22 23 24 23 24 29 25 22 23 32 31 21 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 627 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -1. -3. -7. -10. -13. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 6. 6. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -12. -13. -13. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 7. 10. 11. 14. 18. 18. 17. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 15. 19. 22. 22. 20. 18. 15. 11. 5. -2. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP192015 OLAF 10/19/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 75.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 23.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 110.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 48% is 3.6 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 36% is 4.1 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 26% is 4.4 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 26% is 6.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192015 OLAF 10/19/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##