* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972015 10/19/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 39 41 49 60 75 83 84 89 78 57 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 39 41 49 60 75 83 84 89 78 48 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 36 38 41 47 57 74 93 107 109 92 60 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 8 5 4 4 1 4 5 1 4 14 17 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 3 1 0 -4 -4 -4 -2 -6 -6 -1 3 SHEAR DIR 55 85 101 148 163 46 34 22 354 243 168 152 182 SST (C) 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.3 30.2 30.3 30.1 30.0 30.0 29.9 POT. INT. (KT) 166 166 166 166 166 167 167 166 168 166 164 165 165 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.9 -52.0 -51.6 -51.4 -51.9 -51.3 -51.9 -51.1 -51.6 -50.6 -51.1 -50.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 6 7 5 8 7 8 9 10 9 10 700-500 MB RH 70 70 69 71 74 79 80 82 84 79 74 65 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 10 10 9 10 12 17 20 21 24 17 6 850 MB ENV VOR 22 13 3 9 23 24 39 56 55 51 70 95 109 200 MB DIV 124 110 88 79 74 66 53 91 93 106 166 160 109 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 -2 0 -10 -4 LAND (KM) 411 382 352 342 334 350 383 396 404 384 297 156 -106 LAT (DEG N) 12.1 12.4 12.6 12.7 12.7 12.6 12.5 12.7 13.3 14.2 15.5 17.1 19.3 LONG(DEG W) 95.3 95.4 95.5 95.8 96.0 96.8 98.0 99.4 101.0 102.6 103.8 104.1 103.0 STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 2 2 3 5 6 8 9 9 8 10 12 HEAT CONTENT 42 41 39 39 40 43 50 57 57 60 68 41 50 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 531 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 23. 29. 33. 35. 37. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 10. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 3. 3. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -11. -13. -15. -16. -17. -16. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 3. 11. 15. 17. 21. 11. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 11. 19. 30. 45. 53. 54. 59. 48. 27. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972015 INVEST 10/19/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 40.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 95.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972015 INVEST 10/19/15 00 UTC ## ##