* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLAF EP192015 10/19/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 88 93 96 101 108 112 114 112 106 98 96 88 V (KT) LAND 85 88 93 96 101 108 112 114 112 106 98 96 88 V (KT) LGE mod 85 90 94 98 101 107 115 118 118 114 106 93 79 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 8 8 4 3 2 3 4 4 6 10 16 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 1 -2 -3 -4 -5 -4 -2 -2 -1 0 2 5 SHEAR DIR 336 327 318 323 315 283 106 135 151 208 197 214 233 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.3 29.0 28.7 28.5 28.1 27.6 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 161 161 161 160 159 159 157 154 150 148 144 138 134 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.0 -52.0 -51.5 -52.0 -52.0 -51.5 -51.6 -51.4 -51.3 -51.1 -51.4 -51.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 7 700-500 MB RH 73 75 77 77 77 73 69 66 56 52 50 54 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 25 27 27 28 31 33 35 37 37 34 37 35 850 MB ENV VOR 33 42 53 59 67 61 89 91 117 121 114 100 100 200 MB DIV 102 96 99 120 99 79 81 93 73 83 77 67 70 700-850 TADV -5 -5 -3 -3 -3 0 1 3 4 6 5 8 8 LAND (KM) 2290 2197 2103 2002 1901 1724 1541 1378 1219 1090 1016 984 992 LAT (DEG N) 9.8 10.0 10.1 10.4 10.7 11.5 12.4 13.3 14.3 15.5 16.8 17.9 18.6 LONG(DEG W) 136.0 136.9 137.8 138.7 139.6 141.0 142.4 143.6 144.7 145.4 145.6 145.6 145.4 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 9 9 8 8 7 7 7 6 5 3 HEAT CONTENT 24 24 23 25 29 29 23 22 24 34 27 18 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 616 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -1. -4. -7. -11. -13. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. 0. 3. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -3. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -12. -13. -13. -14. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 6. 11. 14. 18. 20. 20. 17. 21. 17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 12. 16. 23. 27. 29. 27. 21. 13. 11. 3. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP192015 OLAF 10/19/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 75.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 25.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 103.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 92.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 39% is 3.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 31% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 22% is 3.7 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 17% is 4.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192015 OLAF 10/19/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##