* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972015 10/19/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 36 39 48 60 76 86 92 95 84 59 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 36 39 48 60 76 86 92 95 84 50 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 34 36 41 51 68 93 112 113 93 57 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 5 2 3 6 4 6 3 2 2 10 21 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 4 4 0 -3 -3 -5 -5 -2 -5 -5 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 83 106 125 160 148 54 69 51 327 274 160 138 201 SST (C) 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.3 30.3 30.1 30.0 30.1 30.0 29.9 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 166 166 166 167 167 167 166 164 166 165 165 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.0 -51.6 -51.4 -51.8 -51.7 -51.6 -51.5 -51.6 -51.0 -51.0 -50.8 -51.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 5 7 7 8 9 9 9 10 9 700-500 MB RH 70 70 71 74 77 81 81 80 82 80 74 64 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 10 12 17 21 25 27 21 6 850 MB ENV VOR 20 4 11 14 20 21 43 49 54 48 64 87 106 200 MB DIV 114 101 91 76 55 53 60 104 113 152 158 171 91 700-850 TADV 0 0 2 1 0 0 -1 -3 -4 0 0 -15 2 LAND (KM) 365 356 348 344 345 370 396 420 434 414 325 168 -118 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.6 12.6 12.6 12.6 12.5 12.5 12.8 13.4 14.3 15.5 17.4 19.7 LONG(DEG W) 95.4 95.5 95.7 96.0 96.4 97.3 98.7 100.2 101.9 103.3 104.4 104.7 103.3 STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 2 3 4 6 7 8 9 8 9 11 13 HEAT CONTENT 40 39 39 40 41 46 53 61 54 66 67 42 47 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 521 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 23. 29. 33. 35. 37. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 10. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 9. 6. 5. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -11. -14. -15. -16. -17. -17. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 11. 17. 23. 26. 17. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 18. 30. 46. 56. 62. 65. 54. 29. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972015 INVEST 10/19/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 39.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 87.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972015 INVEST 10/19/15 06 UTC ## ##