* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLAF EP192015 10/19/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 95 99 104 108 112 121 120 120 114 108 103 95 85 V (KT) LAND 95 99 104 108 112 121 120 120 114 108 103 95 85 V (KT) LGE mod 95 100 103 106 109 116 123 125 121 113 104 91 74 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 8 3 4 1 3 5 7 5 4 15 15 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 -2 0 -1 -3 -3 -2 -3 -3 0 1 8 4 SHEAR DIR 310 299 304 285 54 90 145 126 152 216 194 234 244 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 28.8 28.5 28.4 28.2 27.9 27.4 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 157 157 156 156 156 156 151 148 147 145 142 136 132 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.2 -51.6 -52.1 -52.2 -51.3 -51.8 -51.0 -51.4 -50.4 -51.0 -50.8 -51.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 7 8 8 9 8 8 700-500 MB RH 75 76 78 76 75 73 69 64 55 55 52 53 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 27 28 29 29 33 33 36 35 37 37 37 34 850 MB ENV VOR 51 57 58 62 61 69 95 99 115 121 110 90 86 200 MB DIV 106 128 107 96 91 93 78 107 102 98 67 95 58 700-850 TADV -5 -4 -3 -3 -2 2 2 3 4 6 5 8 8 LAND (KM) 2165 2062 1959 1870 1782 1603 1417 1257 1113 999 915 891 890 LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.3 10.5 10.8 11.0 11.7 12.8 13.8 14.7 15.8 17.1 18.4 19.4 LONG(DEG W) 137.2 138.2 139.1 139.9 140.7 142.2 143.5 144.6 145.6 146.2 146.5 146.4 146.3 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 9 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 7 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 24 23 27 30 32 25 23 23 31 34 26 23 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 652 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -5. -9. -13. -18. -21. -24. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. 0. 1. 4. 6. 7. 9. 11. 10. 9. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE 2. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -13. -14. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 5. 11. 12. 17. 16. 18. 19. 18. 14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 13. 17. 26. 25. 25. 19. 13. 8. 0. -10. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP192015 OLAF 10/19/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 61.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 27.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 105.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 44% is 3.4 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 34% is 3.9 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 24% is 4.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 24% is 5.6 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192015 OLAF 10/19/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##