* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972015 10/19/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 37 39 50 61 76 85 92 84 64 55 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 37 39 50 61 76 85 92 84 64 44 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 34 36 42 53 71 94 106 98 80 57 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 4 5 5 2 5 5 6 5 7 16 29 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 -2 -4 -4 -2 -5 -6 -6 -6 -3 -4 0 SHEAR DIR 127 122 145 147 137 88 115 141 190 162 158 179 210 SST (C) 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.3 30.4 30.5 30.4 30.3 30.5 30.6 30.6 POT. INT. (KT) 163 162 163 163 164 167 169 170 169 167 170 171 171 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.7 -51.5 -51.8 -52.0 -51.6 -52.1 -51.2 -51.6 -50.7 -51.1 -51.0 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 5 4 7 6 9 8 10 9 9 7 700-500 MB RH 74 75 77 79 81 84 83 84 81 78 70 64 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 9 10 9 11 12 17 21 26 20 7 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 25 31 32 30 31 44 63 68 60 59 71 96 87 200 MB DIV 105 89 77 61 52 28 79 102 122 135 173 151 72 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 -3 -4 -1 -3 -5 5 LAND (KM) 267 278 289 301 287 295 302 329 343 328 254 122 -78 LAT (DEG N) 13.1 13.2 13.2 13.2 13.2 13.1 13.3 13.7 14.3 15.1 16.3 18.0 19.8 LONG(DEG W) 94.3 94.5 94.7 95.1 95.5 96.8 98.4 100.2 101.9 103.4 104.5 104.8 104.3 STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 3 4 5 7 8 9 9 8 8 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 41 40 39 39 39 44 53 58 57 71 54 42 51 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 5 CX,CY: -2/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 533 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 23. 29. 33. 35. 37. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 10. 11. 11. 10. 7. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -11. -14. -15. -16. -17. -16. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 12. 17. 24. 16. -2. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 9. 20. 31. 46. 55. 62. 54. 34. 25. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972015 INVEST 10/19/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 39.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 76.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972015 INVEST 10/19/15 12 UTC ## ##