* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLAF EP192015 10/19/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 115 124 130 135 139 140 134 129 122 114 107 93 87 V (KT) LAND 115 124 130 135 139 140 134 129 122 114 107 93 87 V (KT) LGE mod 115 126 133 135 137 139 139 133 124 114 100 84 68 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 3 0 3 1 6 5 6 3 6 11 16 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 0 -3 -4 -5 -4 -3 0 0 4 9 8 SHEAR DIR 317 343 190 41 28 120 129 119 175 193 215 244 267 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.1 28.7 28.5 28.4 28.2 27.7 27.1 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 157 156 156 157 157 155 151 148 147 145 140 133 130 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.5 -52.1 -52.2 -52.0 -51.8 -51.8 -51.4 -51.3 -50.9 -51.0 -50.9 -50.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 8 8 7 700-500 MB RH 78 79 76 76 74 75 69 60 56 55 53 51 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 26 28 29 31 32 35 36 37 38 38 38 35 35 850 MB ENV VOR 60 62 65 65 71 100 109 118 124 121 115 100 97 200 MB DIV 117 130 109 107 91 100 96 88 104 109 81 58 23 700-850 TADV -5 -3 -4 -2 0 1 3 3 4 4 7 12 14 LAND (KM) 2072 1974 1877 1785 1694 1505 1316 1170 1060 951 838 778 754 LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.3 10.5 10.8 11.1 11.7 12.7 13.6 14.5 15.8 17.6 19.0 19.9 LONG(DEG W) 138.2 139.1 140.0 140.8 141.6 143.3 144.7 145.7 146.3 146.7 147.1 147.4 147.6 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 8 9 8 8 6 6 8 8 6 4 HEAT CONTENT 26 29 33 33 30 25 28 28 33 32 27 24 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 598 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -4. -8. -15. -22. -28. -35. -40. -44. -46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 10. 9. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. 0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 8. 12. 12. 11. 6. 2. 0. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 14. 17. 18. 18. 19. 14. 14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 9. 15. 20. 24. 25. 19. 14. 7. -1. -8. -22. -28. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP192015 OLAF 10/19/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 30.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 41.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 30.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 110.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 93.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 64% is 4.6 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 64% is 8.6 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 64% is 11.5 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192015 OLAF 10/19/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##