* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972015 10/19/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 37 40 48 60 70 73 62 56 51 48 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 37 40 48 60 70 73 55 37 30 28 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 34 36 42 51 63 71 70 39 30 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 6 8 7 7 9 5 8 14 24 22 28 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 -4 -4 -3 -1 -3 -5 -2 -4 -5 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 99 94 103 76 66 82 138 159 163 175 196 214 212 SST (C) 30.1 30.1 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.1 30.5 30.7 30.7 30.7 30.4 30.2 30.0 POT. INT. (KT) 162 162 161 162 163 165 170 172 171 171 169 166 164 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.2 -51.6 -52.0 -51.6 -51.6 -51.6 -51.7 -51.1 -51.2 -51.2 -51.5 -51.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 5 5 6 6 7 7 9 9 10 8 9 700-500 MB RH 74 76 79 81 83 86 85 84 78 71 64 61 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 10 9 9 9 12 15 16 9 6 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR 50 56 55 52 51 54 65 71 71 90 88 103 79 200 MB DIV 97 99 91 75 54 83 109 85 150 154 134 78 79 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 1 0 0 -1 -2 -4 -3 0 6 2 LAND (KM) 176 176 175 201 228 234 171 123 70 -11 -190 -325 -332 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.4 13.5 13.5 13.5 13.7 14.3 15.3 16.6 18.1 19.9 21.6 23.0 LONG(DEG W) 93.3 93.4 93.5 93.8 94.2 95.5 97.2 99.2 101.0 102.2 102.5 102.1 101.1 STM SPEED (KT) 1 1 2 3 5 8 10 11 10 9 9 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 40 39 38 38 37 39 46 57 37 53 52 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 2 CX,CY: 1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 572 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 23. 29. 33. 35. 37. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 4. 2. 0. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -11. -14. -16. -16. -16. -16. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 4. 8. 10. 0. -4. -7. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 10. 18. 30. 40. 43. 32. 26. 21. 18. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972015 INVEST 10/19/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 38.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 83.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972015 INVEST 10/19/15 18 UTC ## ##