* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLAF EP192015 10/20/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 115 119 124 128 131 136 134 130 121 111 103 90 85 V (KT) LAND 115 119 124 128 131 136 134 130 121 111 103 90 85 V (KT) LGE mod 115 119 122 125 129 134 134 126 116 107 93 77 63 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 3 3 2 5 7 8 5 5 13 14 22 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -3 -3 -5 -5 -3 -2 0 1 5 5 5 SHEAR DIR 13 17 54 55 78 101 122 133 204 202 241 258 266 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.0 28.6 28.4 28.3 28.0 27.3 26.9 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 156 156 157 157 157 154 149 147 146 143 136 130 128 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -52.2 -52.3 -52.1 -51.5 -51.9 -51.3 -51.4 -50.4 -50.8 -50.4 -51.0 -50.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 8 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 79 76 75 75 75 72 68 61 55 54 51 51 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 26 27 29 30 30 34 36 38 38 38 38 36 37 850 MB ENV VOR 59 63 63 70 71 93 94 117 115 109 96 95 93 200 MB DIV 165 118 108 88 103 97 109 123 110 96 120 52 22 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -3 -4 -1 0 2 3 4 3 7 10 15 LAND (KM) 1990 1901 1813 1724 1635 1443 1288 1154 1014 906 839 827 839 LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.3 10.5 10.9 11.2 12.1 13.0 14.0 15.3 16.8 18.4 19.5 20.2 LONG(DEG W) 139.1 139.9 140.7 141.5 142.2 143.7 144.8 145.6 146.3 146.7 146.9 146.9 146.8 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 8 6 7 7 8 7 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 32 34 35 32 27 26 28 27 35 27 28 16 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 570 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -4. -8. -16. -23. -29. -35. -40. -45. -47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 8. 7. 5. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 9. 7. 6. 4. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -11. -13. -13. -14. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 10. 14. 17. 17. 17. 18. 15. 15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 1. 0. -2. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 13. 16. 21. 19. 15. 6. -4. -12. -25. -30. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP192015 OLAF 10/20/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 41.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 32.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 116.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 95.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 35% is 2.7 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 33% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 23% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192015 OLAF 10/20/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##