* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972015 10/20/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 33 37 41 51 63 75 82 73 61 62 62 V (KT) LAND 30 32 33 37 41 51 63 75 82 73 52 41 35 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 34 36 43 55 70 83 81 60 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 7 4 4 6 4 5 6 15 17 24 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -2 -4 -2 -2 -7 -5 -3 -3 -3 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 122 130 94 89 85 95 124 135 161 164 170 N/A N/A SST (C) 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.3 30.4 30.6 30.6 30.7 30.7 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 162 162 163 164 165 168 169 171 171 170 169 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.6 -52.0 -51.7 -51.4 -52.0 -51.4 -52.0 -50.7 -51.5 -51.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 4 6 7 5 8 7 11 9 11 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 75 77 81 82 83 85 85 81 75 68 64 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 8 9 9 11 13 16 20 14 7 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 52 48 49 48 45 59 62 60 64 74 84 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 89 68 55 61 63 82 97 95 156 133 122 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -3 0 -3 -4 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 206 229 252 285 301 281 285 238 123 44 -1 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 93.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 3 4 6 8 9 10 9 6 6 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 40 40 40 39 39 44 54 57 41 33 8 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 3 CX,CY: 1/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 529 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 23. 29. 33. 35. 38. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 7. 5. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -11. -13. -15. -16. -16. -16. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 12. 16. 9. -2. -2. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 7. 11. 21. 33. 45. 52. 43. 31. 32. 32. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972015 INVEST 10/20/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 39.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972015 INVEST 10/20/15 00 UTC ## ##