* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLAF EP192015 10/20/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 130 134 137 139 140 137 134 127 118 105 94 82 74 V (KT) LAND 130 134 137 139 140 137 134 127 118 105 94 82 74 V (KT) LGE mod 130 130 127 125 125 123 123 118 110 98 83 70 58 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 4 2 1 2 5 7 4 8 14 19 25 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 -3 -2 -4 -5 -4 -1 3 4 9 6 3 SHEAR DIR 286 317 23 75 114 135 116 125 170 221 241 261 258 SST (C) 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.1 28.7 28.5 28.3 28.1 27.6 27.1 26.8 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 156 157 157 156 155 151 148 146 144 139 134 130 129 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.5 -52.3 -51.4 -51.8 -51.9 -51.5 -51.4 -50.9 -50.9 -50.9 -51.2 -51.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 8 7 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 700-500 MB RH 79 75 76 75 75 73 63 54 53 53 53 56 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 27 29 30 30 32 36 37 38 37 36 35 34 850 MB ENV VOR 62 58 60 60 77 87 111 124 112 98 88 83 65 200 MB DIV 127 103 81 113 95 85 105 89 75 96 103 31 27 700-850 TADV -2 -1 -2 -1 0 2 2 4 4 8 11 16 15 LAND (KM) 1889 1798 1707 1610 1514 1349 1172 1027 917 845 828 863 924 LAT (DEG N) 10.3 10.6 10.9 11.3 11.7 12.6 13.7 14.9 16.3 17.7 19.2 20.5 21.6 LONG(DEG W) 140.0 140.8 141.6 142.4 143.2 144.4 145.6 146.4 146.8 147.0 146.9 146.6 146.2 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 9 9 8 8 7 7 7 8 7 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 34 34 31 26 25 28 27 35 29 27 19 8 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 611 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -6. -9. -17. -26. -35. -42. -50. -56. -61. -63. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 9. 7. 4. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 4. 6. 6. 5. 2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 3. 8. 14. 15. 17. 15. 15. 12. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 9. 10. 7. 4. -3. -12. -25. -36. -48. -56. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP192015 OLAF 10/20/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 26.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 30.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 103.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 97.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192015 OLAF 10/20/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##