* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972015 10/20/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 38 41 44 55 67 73 77 78 67 67 66 V (KT) LAND 35 37 38 41 44 55 67 73 77 78 50 37 31 V (KT) LGE mod 35 37 39 41 43 51 64 80 93 96 59 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 4 2 4 4 3 2 5 10 13 20 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -4 -3 -2 -2 -3 -2 -3 -1 0 -1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 174 240 355 56 72 91 92 223 203 204 182 N/A N/A SST (C) 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.3 30.5 30.7 30.7 30.7 30.6 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 162 163 163 164 164 168 170 171 170 170 169 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -52.1 -51.9 -51.6 -51.8 -51.9 -52.1 -51.9 -52.0 -51.4 -51.3 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 6 6 5 6 7 8 9 10 10 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 77 80 81 83 84 84 85 83 78 70 64 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 9 9 9 9 11 13 14 17 19 12 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 39 30 32 29 30 40 58 33 42 33 70 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 64 39 39 39 63 92 85 88 115 126 152 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 1 1 1 1 0 -5 -2 0 -2 -7 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 237 271 306 340 330 310 245 186 84 22 -55 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 93.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 4 4 4 6 9 10 8 8 7 6 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 42 42 41 40 39 46 54 57 38 16 52 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 556 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 8. 15. 21. 27. 30. 32. 34. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 11. 10. 8. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 5. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -13. -14. -15. -15. -15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. 0. 4. 6. 9. 12. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 6. 9. 20. 32. 38. 42. 43. 32. 32. 32. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972015 INVEST 10/20/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 40.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972015 INVEST 10/20/15 06 UTC ## ##