* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLAF EP192015 10/20/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 130 133 136 136 135 133 129 117 111 96 85 72 65 V (KT) LAND 130 133 136 136 135 133 129 117 111 96 85 72 65 V (KT) LGE mod 130 130 128 126 125 121 118 114 105 90 73 59 50 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 1 1 3 4 6 3 5 14 16 28 30 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -4 -4 -4 -5 -1 -2 0 2 10 4 0 7 SHEAR DIR 314 340 45 119 111 99 104 161 201 229 248 263 261 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.6 28.4 28.2 27.9 27.4 26.9 26.8 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 157 157 156 155 153 149 147 145 142 137 131 130 128 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.0 -51.4 -51.7 -51.7 -51.2 -51.5 -50.6 -50.8 -50.4 -51.1 -51.2 -51.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 7 7 7 8 8 8 7 7 6 700-500 MB RH 76 77 74 74 74 71 62 56 57 54 53 55 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 31 30 32 33 33 36 38 36 40 37 37 34 34 850 MB ENV VOR 60 62 59 70 72 81 108 107 102 90 84 75 59 200 MB DIV 116 131 102 74 73 108 95 106 113 133 62 37 53 700-850 TADV 0 -1 0 0 0 2 3 4 7 10 16 15 19 LAND (KM) 1796 1703 1610 1515 1419 1255 1108 970 848 799 837 898 978 LAT (DEG N) 10.5 10.9 11.3 11.8 12.2 13.1 14.3 15.6 17.0 18.3 19.6 20.8 22.1 LONG(DEG W) 140.9 141.7 142.4 143.2 143.9 145.1 145.9 146.6 147.2 147.3 146.8 146.3 145.8 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 9 9 8 7 8 7 7 7 6 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 28 24 20 19 22 24 25 29 27 30 13 7 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 619 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -6. -9. -17. -27. -35. -43. -51. -57. -62. -64. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 8. 5. 1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 4. 6. 6. 5. 2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 11. 9. 13. 9. 9. 5. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 6. 5. 3. -1. -13. -19. -34. -45. -58. -65. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP192015 OLAF 10/20/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 25.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 22.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 99.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 84.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192015 OLAF 10/20/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##