* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972015 10/20/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 34 37 42 55 67 75 82 76 53 51 47 V (KT) LAND 30 31 34 37 42 55 67 75 82 76 43 32 28 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 34 37 45 59 73 85 81 45 32 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 0 2 3 2 3 5 9 16 23 31 33 49 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -1 0 -1 -3 -4 -3 -5 -4 -4 0 0 -4 SHEAR DIR 228 317 64 93 124 155 203 176 199 179 194 235 253 SST (C) 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.2 30.3 30.4 30.5 30.4 30.5 30.7 30.5 30.1 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 164 164 165 166 168 169 170 169 170 171 171 168 160 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.8 -51.6 -51.8 -52.1 -51.6 -52.1 -51.2 -51.6 -50.9 -51.7 -51.4 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 4 6 7 5 5 8 7 10 10 11 8 9 6 700-500 MB RH 78 79 82 82 83 82 80 76 70 64 63 62 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 11 11 11 14 18 20 24 20 7 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 41 43 39 37 41 47 41 37 48 82 75 69 29 200 MB DIV 61 50 36 50 61 69 75 128 142 177 146 95 40 700-850 TADV 1 1 1 1 0 -2 -5 -2 0 -2 -5 15 6 LAND (KM) 243 296 287 277 288 297 283 261 167 30 -169 -329 -368 LAT (DEG N) 13.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 94.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 6 7 7 8 10 10 8 8 10 13 14 15 HEAT CONTENT 35 38 44 58 69 58 54 55 43 33 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 595 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 23. 30. 33. 36. 38. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 9. 11. 10. 8. 4. 0. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -11. -13. -15. -16. -16. -15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 13. 16. 22. 17. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 7. 12. 25. 37. 45. 52. 46. 23. 21. 17. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972015 INVEST 10/20/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 48.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972015 INVEST 10/20/15 12 UTC ## ##