* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLAF EP192015 10/20/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 130 129 129 130 132 131 133 126 115 100 87 78 71 V (KT) LAND 130 129 129 130 132 131 133 126 115 100 87 78 71 V (KT) LGE mod 130 127 124 122 121 120 118 114 103 86 70 58 50 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 5 3 4 4 5 2 6 14 19 22 23 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -1 0 -3 -2 -3 -2 0 6 6 6 6 9 SHEAR DIR 339 7 69 97 58 118 107 202 224 244 262 260 269 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.0 28.8 28.5 28.3 28.1 27.7 27.1 26.8 26.7 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 157 157 156 154 151 149 146 144 140 134 131 130 127 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -51.7 -51.9 -52.0 -52.0 -51.8 -51.8 -51.1 -51.2 -51.0 -51.3 -51.2 -51.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 76 75 76 77 74 66 59 54 55 53 55 56 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 28 31 30 31 33 34 38 38 39 37 35 35 34 850 MB ENV VOR 55 57 60 62 63 100 110 105 94 87 79 70 35 200 MB DIV 119 88 78 62 91 123 106 112 107 94 10 4 28 700-850 TADV 1 1 2 1 2 2 3 4 6 8 12 16 27 LAND (KM) 1718 1623 1527 1440 1354 1185 1042 926 841 809 851 957 1089 LAT (DEG N) 10.6 11.1 11.5 12.0 12.4 13.5 14.8 16.1 17.5 19.0 20.4 21.7 22.8 LONG(DEG W) 141.7 142.5 143.2 143.9 144.5 145.6 146.3 146.8 147.1 147.1 146.7 145.9 144.9 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 8 7 8 7 7 8 7 8 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 25 21 20 22 25 24 27 28 27 21 8 4 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 130 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 617 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -6. -9. -17. -27. -36. -44. -52. -58. -63. -65. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 7. 7. 6. 4. 1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 6. 5. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -10. -12. -13. -13. -13. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 5. 8. 14. 15. 16. 13. 11. 10. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. 0. 2. 1. 3. -4. -15. -30. -43. -52. -59. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP192015 OLAF 10/20/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 25.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 22.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 87.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 97.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192015 OLAF 10/20/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##