* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWENTY EP202015 10/20/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 35 41 57 64 71 76 69 50 51 52 V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 35 41 57 64 71 76 59 37 30 28 V (KT) LGE mod 30 29 29 30 33 41 54 66 74 59 37 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 3 1 3 3 3 2 5 10 11 21 29 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -3 -4 -4 -2 -4 -5 -2 0 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 266 324 54 48 34 82 244 199 188 189 209 N/A N/A SST (C) 30.1 30.1 30.2 30.3 30.3 30.4 30.5 30.4 30.6 30.6 30.6 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 164 165 166 168 168 170 170 168 171 172 173 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.4 -51.7 -51.9 -51.6 -51.8 -51.6 -51.4 -51.0 -51.1 -51.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 7 7 8 10 11 10 9 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 79 80 82 83 84 84 81 76 68 62 53 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 10 11 13 17 17 19 21 16 6 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 54 42 32 37 40 51 41 40 44 88 82 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 65 48 43 54 71 75 101 96 154 107 97 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 -2 -6 -5 0 2 -3 -3 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 274 296 290 305 332 327 283 234 134 -34 -137 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.2 13.1 13.0 12.9 13.5 14.8 15.9 17.1 19.2 22.2 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 94.6 95.3 95.9 96.8 97.6 99.7 101.7 103.0 103.7 104.0 104.2 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 7 8 9 11 10 7 9 13 15 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 37 41 51 65 67 59 54 52 40 50 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 624 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 23. 30. 33. 36. 38. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 8. 4. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. 0. 0. 1. 3. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -11. -14. -15. -16. -17. -16. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 3. 9. 10. 14. 16. 10. -6. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 5. 11. 27. 34. 41. 46. 39. 20. 21. 22. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP202015 TWENTY 10/20/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 136.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 52.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202015 TWENTY 10/20/15 18 UTC ## ##