* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLAF EP192015 10/21/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 125 123 122 123 123 119 113 106 92 79 70 61 58 V (KT) LAND 125 123 122 123 123 119 113 106 92 79 70 61 58 V (KT) LGE mod 125 121 117 114 111 106 102 95 84 73 62 53 48 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 3 5 4 9 9 5 11 19 23 21 20 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -5 -4 -1 0 0 6 8 5 3 5 8 SHEAR DIR 8 173 156 145 141 151 126 197 243 256 266 267 260 SST (C) 29.3 29.2 29.0 28.8 28.6 28.4 28.3 28.0 27.4 26.9 26.8 26.6 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 157 156 154 152 150 147 146 143 137 132 131 128 125 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.0 -52.0 -51.9 -51.3 -51.8 -51.0 -51.1 -50.5 -51.3 -51.1 -51.3 -51.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 8 7 6 7 700-500 MB RH 74 74 77 73 72 61 53 51 49 49 50 50 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 30 29 30 32 33 35 35 36 35 34 34 32 33 850 MB ENV VOR 53 53 62 73 89 118 105 99 86 84 66 48 30 200 MB DIV 100 89 89 111 121 104 88 99 101 21 -2 -10 43 700-850 TADV 1 3 3 2 1 1 3 1 6 7 11 15 28 LAND (KM) 1611 1519 1427 1339 1251 1096 976 886 810 816 901 1004 1121 LAT (DEG N) 10.9 11.3 11.7 12.3 12.9 14.2 15.5 16.8 18.3 19.7 21.0 22.3 23.4 LONG(DEG W) 142.7 143.5 144.2 144.8 145.3 146.1 146.6 146.9 147.2 147.0 146.3 145.6 144.8 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 21 20 23 25 24 25 29 26 30 12 6 3 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 130 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 606 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -3. -5. -8. -16. -24. -33. -40. -48. -54. -59. -61. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -2. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -12. -12. -12. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 7. 9. 7. 5. 5. 3. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -2. -2. -6. -12. -19. -33. -46. -55. -64. -67. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP192015 OLAF 10/21/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 28.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 22.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 102.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192015 OLAF 10/21/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##