* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWENTY EP202015 10/21/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 41 46 53 68 76 79 72 62 58 57 57 V (KT) LAND 35 37 41 46 53 68 76 79 72 42 32 28 27 V (KT) LGE mod 35 38 41 45 50 63 78 86 81 45 32 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 2 2 2 4 1 9 13 18 28 34 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -3 -5 -4 1 -7 -1 -3 -3 5 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 275 322 6 357 20 293 194 208 188 208 231 N/A N/A SST (C) 30.1 30.1 30.2 30.3 30.4 30.5 30.5 30.6 30.7 30.5 30.6 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 164 165 166 168 169 171 171 171 171 171 172 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.7 -52.0 -51.5 -51.4 -51.8 -51.0 -51.1 -50.7 -51.4 -51.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 7 8 7 10 9 12 7 9 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 82 82 82 82 83 84 78 70 62 56 47 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 13 14 15 20 21 21 16 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 49 48 51 50 53 46 44 55 73 86 85 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 68 60 66 86 79 75 107 133 126 93 59 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 -2 -7 -3 0 0 2 2 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 305 292 301 306 312 298 236 126 0 -125 -107 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.1 13.0 13.1 13.2 14.0 15.4 16.9 18.5 20.5 22.8 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 95.0 95.8 96.5 97.4 98.3 100.2 102.0 103.1 103.6 104.1 104.7 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 8 9 9 11 10 8 9 11 11 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 40 48 62 69 62 57 50 40 51 55 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 610 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 15. 22. 28. 31. 33. 35. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 9. 8. 5. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -12. -14. -16. -16. -16. -16. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 5. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 5. 12. 14. 15. 8. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 11. 18. 33. 41. 44. 37. 27. 23. 22. 22. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP202015 TWENTY 10/21/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 56.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 71.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202015 TWENTY 10/21/15 00 UTC ## ##