* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLAF EP192015 10/21/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 115 111 112 112 114 114 107 99 85 72 63 57 51 V (KT) LAND 115 111 112 112 114 114 107 99 85 72 63 57 51 V (KT) LGE mod 115 109 105 104 103 101 97 88 77 66 56 48 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 0 2 4 7 5 8 13 20 22 24 21 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 0 -3 -3 0 2 7 5 6 2 9 19 SHEAR DIR 279 30 63 154 176 199 190 216 228 250 255 259 252 SST (C) 29.2 29.0 28.8 28.6 28.5 28.3 28.1 27.6 27.1 26.8 26.7 26.4 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 156 154 152 150 149 146 144 139 133 131 129 127 123 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.9 -51.8 -51.3 -51.8 -51.8 -51.1 -51.1 -50.9 -51.1 -51.1 -51.5 -51.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 8 7 7 6 7 700-500 MB RH 72 74 73 73 68 57 50 50 42 41 44 47 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 31 30 33 32 34 36 35 36 35 34 34 33 31 850 MB ENV VOR 65 70 82 86 104 113 112 103 96 88 76 48 70 200 MB DIV 100 100 106 114 95 98 90 83 73 31 8 25 77 700-850 TADV 3 3 4 5 3 4 4 6 10 14 15 20 12 LAND (KM) 1523 1429 1334 1251 1167 1024 917 845 809 841 927 1038 1169 LAT (DEG N) 11.3 11.8 12.3 12.9 13.5 14.8 16.3 17.7 19.0 20.4 21.7 23.0 24.3 LONG(DEG W) 143.4 144.1 144.8 145.3 145.8 146.5 146.8 147.0 147.1 146.8 146.2 145.5 144.7 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 6 7 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 26 28 29 29 29 34 29 27 23 9 5 2 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 130 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 592 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -11. -19. -26. -33. -40. -46. -50. -52. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 5. 4. 2. 0. -2. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -7. -6. -4. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -11. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 3. 7. 6. 8. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -3. -3. -1. -1. -8. -16. -30. -43. -52. -58. -64. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP192015 OLAF 10/21/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 37.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 28.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 103.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 98.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 26% is 2.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192015 OLAF 10/21/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##