* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * PATRICIA EP202015 10/21/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 41 48 54 67 72 75 57 46 41 39 38 V (KT) LAND 35 38 41 48 54 67 72 75 48 34 29 28 27 V (KT) LGE mod 35 38 42 47 53 65 76 76 50 34 29 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 3 4 9 7 5 11 11 31 32 47 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 -1 -2 -5 -4 0 -2 3 5 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 339 352 354 21 360 271 218 198 196 232 228 N/A N/A SST (C) 30.1 30.2 30.3 30.4 30.4 30.5 30.5 30.6 30.6 30.7 30.6 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 165 166 168 169 169 171 170 171 171 172 171 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.9 -51.6 -51.3 -51.7 -51.0 -51.0 -50.5 -51.0 -51.2 -51.6 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 7 7 7 8 10 10 9 8 8 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 81 82 81 83 84 80 74 67 59 49 37 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 11 15 16 20 20 19 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 38 46 42 46 49 39 53 56 95 82 63 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 65 67 90 92 91 92 123 155 124 60 0 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -7 -8 0 0 -1 -1 4 -4 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 304 301 315 301 299 261 198 51 -88 -72 -81 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.0 13.0 13.3 13.6 14.8 16.2 17.8 19.7 21.6 23.5 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 95.7 96.5 97.3 98.3 99.3 101.2 102.6 103.4 103.9 104.6 105.6 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 9 10 10 10 9 10 10 10 10 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 39 43 48 53 56 57 46 35 51 58 62 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 576 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 15. 22. 28. 31. 33. 35. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 3. -1. -7. -8. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -12. -15. -16. -16. -16. -16. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 3. 6. 12. 13. 13. -3. -9. -10. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 13. 19. 32. 37. 40. 22. 11. 6. 4. 3. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP202015 PATRICIA 10/21/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 47.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 81.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202015 PATRICIA 10/21/15 06 UTC ## ##