* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLAF EP192015 10/21/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 105 99 97 96 97 95 91 80 68 53 45 40 35 V (KT) LAND 105 99 97 96 97 95 91 80 68 53 45 40 35 V (KT) LGE mod 105 97 91 87 84 79 75 68 60 51 43 36 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 4 5 8 7 6 11 17 26 24 23 19 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 0 -2 0 0 7 8 7 5 6 13 20 SHEAR DIR 256 237 206 186 184 206 219 215 229 256 264 255 255 SST (C) 29.1 28.8 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.0 27.4 26.9 26.8 26.7 26.4 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 155 152 150 149 147 146 143 137 131 130 130 127 123 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.1 -51.5 -51.8 -51.8 -51.0 -51.1 -50.7 -51.4 -51.1 -51.6 -51.3 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 7 8 8 8 7 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 74 72 72 66 61 55 52 51 47 47 49 52 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 30 32 31 33 33 34 36 34 33 29 28 27 26 850 MB ENV VOR 73 77 78 92 104 98 90 84 79 58 43 9 26 200 MB DIV 97 118 124 79 94 92 86 96 27 -20 -10 26 13 700-850 TADV 10 9 6 4 2 4 5 7 11 17 15 16 15 LAND (KM) 1434 1345 1256 1173 1091 979 865 812 827 910 1050 1177 1322 LAT (DEG N) 11.6 12.2 12.7 13.4 14.0 15.1 16.6 18.2 19.7 20.9 21.8 23.1 24.6 LONG(DEG W) 144.2 144.8 145.4 145.9 146.3 146.8 147.2 147.2 146.9 146.2 145.0 144.1 143.2 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 7 7 8 8 7 7 7 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 20 20 20 19 20 23 25 29 12 5 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 125 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 643 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -3. -7. -14. -20. -26. -32. -37. -40. -43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. -2. -4. -6. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -10. -11. -11. -10. -8. -7. PERSISTENCE -6. -8. -9. -8. -6. -4. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -10. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 8. 7. 5. -1. -1. -3. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -8. -9. -8. -10. -14. -25. -37. -52. -59. -65. -70. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP192015 OLAF 10/21/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -20.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 45.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 19.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 102.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 92.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.6 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192015 OLAF 10/21/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##